Jayson Tatum's Shooting: Pull-up vs. Off the catch

A look at Tatum's struggles off the dribble, and his improvements off the catch.

It's been an interesting season for Jayson Tatum. Starting the year off as the Human Torch, earning himself a seat at the MVP table before morphing into Sub Zero after the All-Star break and subsequently being removed from those discussions. 

Usually, Tatum begins a season slow before ramping things up down the stretch, hitting his stride as the postseason begins. Yet, this season, we saw the reverse. A hot start, followed by an ice age, and then a quick thaw with an All-Star emerging to begin the playoff run against the Atlanta Hawks. 

Yet, after years of begging for Tatum to become more of a force around the rim, his interior finishing wasn't the problem. Instead, it was, and still is, his ability to finish his dribble pull-ups. 

In 74 regular-season games, Tatum has attempted 507 pull-up jumpers. Of those 507 shots, Tatum has hit 153 of them, giving him a conversion rate of 30.2%. 

It's worth noting that 357 of those pull-up attempts came from three-point range (which tracks considering Joe Mazzulla's love for perimeter-based offense) - making just 104 of them, good for a 29.1% return. 

Simply put, there has been limited rhythm on Tatum's off-the-dribble jumpers this year. Maybe it's due to the increased defensive attention, or more likely, due to the wrist injury he's been nursing since 2022, where he played through a non-displaced fracture to help the Celtics reach the NBA Finals. 

"It was small, but it was still like a non-displaced chip. So like I chipped a bone but it didn't leave the surface," Tatum told Bleacher Report's Taylor Rooks in August 2022. "But it had shown that the bone had grew over it so it healed, but I was still in pain because I kept getting hit or falling on it. So I guess I played with somewhat of a fracture for like two months. Then in the playoffs, there was a play against Milwaukee in Game 3. I dunked it, Giannis (Antetokounmpo) chased me down and fouled me and I fell into the crowd. 

That was the most painful it's been since that day that I hurt it. I ended up getting a cortisone shot in my wrist that night and you could see it. I've lost color in my hand because it kills the fat cells and there's not a lot of fat in my hand, so I've lost color right there. After each game I would have to wear a brace to shoot around and I would take it off before the cameras saw me."

Let's get one thing straight: Tatum has never been an elite pull-up shooter, although he's never struggled to this extent either. The below table will show you Tatum's pull-up success rate for each season he's been in the NBA. 

Judging by the above table, it's fair to assess that Tatum is a league-average pull-up shooter on above-average volume, which makes him a reliable threat off the dribble. Not this season, though. Instead, Tatum's shooting success has come off the catch, with his feet already set and defenders scrambling to get a hand in his face. 

There are two reasons for Tatum's success as a catch-and-shoot threat. 

• First is that without the need to generate space, create his own angles, and flow into a shooting motion, Tatum can focus on ball alignment, body mechanics, and a smooth release. 

• The second is because when operating as the ball-handler, Tatum draws a ridiculous amount of defensive attention, making it harder for him to find daylight, whereas, off the ball, Tatum is generally a screener or floor spacer, both of which afford him additional opportunities to hunt out shooting pockets before calling for the pass. 

The numbers back this up, too, as this season, Tatum has converted 41.1% of his field goal attempts when shooting off the catch, and 40.5% from deep, which is a high-level return from one of your star players. Let's look at his career percentages as a catch-and-shoot threat. 

An interesting caveat here is that this season, Tatum's attempts off the catch have reached a career-high, as Mazzulla's preference for generating open shots on the perimeter has paid dividends. In fact, let's look at how often Tatum had to deal with a defender up in his grill and how often he was open or wide open. 

As you would expect, Tatum is not often gifted an open or wide-open shot. Instead, the majority of his offense comes with a defender between two to four feet away from him, allowing them to close out at a moment's notice. As such, a 40.5% return on 311 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts is a welcome addition to Tatum's offensive bag, which has grown in diversity over the last two years as he undertakes a larger role as an offensive initiator. 

“Tatum, in particular, is just hard to guard one on one,” Hawks head coach, Quin Snyder said. “So you have to commit multiple defenders to him, and those other guys are, you know, they’re prepared. They know when those shots are coming. And he’s becoming an excellent passer. You can tell he takes a lot of pride, and making a play when he gets double-teamed so they can score in bunches”

It's hard to tell what has caused Tatum's struggles when shooting a pull-up jumper this season, especially given how it has been a significant part of his skillset since entering the NBA. Yet, there is something to be said about how his struggles have forced him to diversify his offensive output, most notable in attacking the rim - something Ime Udoka tasked him with doing more of throughout last season.

According to Cleaning The Glass, Tatum attempted 454 field goal attempts within four feet of the bucket throughout the regular season, drawing 119 fouls in the process, placing him in the 58th percentile of wings. On those rim attempts, Tatum averaged 70%, hitting 318 of them, good for the 70th percentile. Because when you're struggling to knock down your pull-ups from the field, getting to the rack is the next best option, especially given Tatum's size, length, and his improved ability to use his body to create separation when driving the lane. 

Now, I know some of you might be thinking, 'Well, that was the regular season, and he's looked much better off the dribble during the opening round of the playoffs.' And I say to you, you're right. While it's worth remembering that we're dealing with a four-game sample size, Tatum does seem to have found his pull-up jumper from somewhere and is now starting to cook defenses as they attempt to take away his shooting space.

So far, against the Hawks, Tatum has attempted 26 pull-ups, knocking down 10 of them while going 9-of-22 from deep. Again, this is a small sample size, and only time will tell whether we bore witness to a season-long slump to his off-the-dribble game, whether some sort of limiting factor was at play, or whether he was simply saving one of his best weapons for when it matters most. 

Regardless of what happens in the remainder of the postseason, lots of good came from Tatum's pull-up shooting struggles. It forced him to continue expanding his passing game, to pressure the rim more, and (hopefully) it trigger an evolution in his off-ball game which will undoubtedly serve him well during the latter years of his career. For now, though, it's time to gear up for game five of Boston's series against the Hawks, with continued hope that Tatum knocks down his off-the-dribble looks to keep their defense on the back foot.